Finding the optimal dating strategy for 2019 with probability theory

Finding the optimal dating strategy for 2019 with probability theory

How knowing some Statistical theory may make finding Mr. Right slightly easier?

This is part 1 of an exploration to love and dating from a romantic hopeful. Check out part 2 here.

(If you don’t agree, that’s awesome. You probably don’t spend that much time reading and writing Medium posts like me T – T)

Nowadays, we spend countless hours every week clicking through profiles and messaging people we find attractive on Tinder or Subtle Asian Dating.

And when you finally ‘get it’, you know how to take the perfect selfies for your Tinder’s profile and you have no trouble inviting that cute girl in your Korean class to dinner, you would think that it shouldn’t be hard to find Mr/Mrs. Perfect to settle down. Nope. Many of us just can’t find the right match.

Are our expectations too high? Are we too selfish? Or we simply destined to not meeting The One? Don’t worry! It’s not your fault. You just have not done your math.

It’s a tricky question, so we have to turn to the mathematics and statisticians. And they have an answer: 37%.

It means out of all the people you could possibly date, let’s say you foresee yourself dating 100 people in the next 10 years (more like 10 for me but that’s another discussion), you should see about the first 37% or 37 people, and then settle for the first person after that who’s better than the ones you saw before (or wait for the very last one if such a person doesn’t turn up)

Let’s say we foresee N potential people who will come to our life sequentially and they are ranked according to some ‘matching/best-partner statistics’. Of course, you want to end up with the person who ranks 1st – let’s call this person X.

Before we explore the optimal dating policy, let’s start with a simple approach. What if you are so desperate to get matched on Tinder or to get dates that you decide to settle/marry the first person that comes along? What is the chance of this person being X?

And as n gets larger the larger timeframe we consider, this probability will tend to zero. (more…)

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